Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!
Monday Night Football
Chicago Bears (5-1, 9-7-1 ATS) at Los Angeles Rams (4-2, 3-3), 8:15 p.m.
Implied Team Totals: Bears 19.25, Rams 25.25
Spread/Total Movements: 5.5 to 6, 46.5 to 44.5
Weather: Dome
Bears Injuries to Watch: OLB Khalil Mack (back), CB Buster Skrine (ankle)
Rams Injuries to Watch: TE Tyler Higbee (hand)
Bears Trends
The Bears have covered four straight Monday games.
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as an underdog.
The Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against teams with winning records.
The Bears offense averaged a putrid 4.1 yards per play last week.
Nick Foles is averaging just 5.8 YPA since taking over in Week 3, and he’s yet to throw for multiple TDs in any game that he’s started. The Rams have allowed Jimmy G and Josh Allen to combine for seven TD passes this season, and they’ve allowed just one passing TD in their other four games (against the NFC East teams, FWIW).
Allen Robinson has 8+ targets in 12 straight games, and he’s leading the league with 66 targets through six games. He had a disappointing 5/53 receiving performance against the Panthers last week, but he still has 5+ catches and 50+ yards in four games with Foles. He’ll get extra attention from Jalen Ramsey and company this week, and the Rams are allowing the second-fewest FPG to WRs this season (27.9).
Jimmy Graham has alternated weeks with touchdowns to start the season and, more promisingly, he’s been an active piece of this passing attack ever since Foles stepped into the lineup. He’s posted 5+ targets, 3+ catches, and 33+ yards in the four games since Foles took over the offense. The Rams have allowed four TDs to TEs in their last four games.
David Montgomery has topped out at 3.2 YPC in his four games with Foles at QB, but he at least played on 84% of the snaps last week. He’s also posted 30+ receiving yards and 3+ catches in three straight games. Raheem Mostert had 19/76 scrimmage before leaving last week’s contest early against the Rams.
Rams Trends
The Rams are not currently allowing spectators.
The Rams are 6-1 toward unders in their last seven games as a home favorite.
Los Angeles is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss.
Chicago’s defense allowed only 4.9 yards per play last week and they forced three Panthers’ turnovers.
Cooper Kupp left two TDs on the field (a long score and a red-zone score) against the 49ers last week on his way to just 3/11 receiving. Kupp had 4+ catches in every game before last week. The Bears are allowing the third-fewest FPG to WRs this season (28.7).
Jared Goff got burned by the two missed TDs by Kupp, but he still threw for multiple TDs for the fourth time in his last five games. The Bears have to allow an opposing QB to throw for multiple TDs against them.
Robert Woods was due for a major positive TD regression, and he’s already matched last year’s TD total of four just six games into this season. He didn’t do much else against the 49ers with just 4/29/1 receiving, but he’s now 11+ FP in five of his six games. Both D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson posted 4+ catches and 75+ yards against the Bears last week.
Tyler Higbee has yet to see more than five targets in a game this season. He at least posted a season-high 56 receiving yards last week but Gerald Everett matched him in targets. The Bears haven’t allowed an opposing TE to reach double-digit FP since Week 2.
Cam Akers played just one snap after Sean McVay said Akers would have an increased role against the 49ers. Darrell Henderson led the way with 32 snaps and Malcolm Brown was a close second (28) with the Rams playing catch-up in the second half. Henderson has 29 carries over the last two games compared to 10 for Brown. Henderson has 14+ touches in four of his last five games, and he’s turned in three games with 19+ FP in that span. The Rams limited Mike Davis 56/1 scrimmage last week.
Brolley’s Bets
Chicago Bears +6 (Best Bet)
Nick Foles (Chi) over 22.5 completions (Best Bet)
