My power ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season.
I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks for the week, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant. I’m currently baking in a 1-to-1.5 point advantage for home teams right now. I hope you find these ratings useful and good luck with your wagers!
| Rank | Team | Power Rating | Record (ATS) | Ratings Change | Super Bowl LV Odds |
| 1. | Kansas City Chiefs | 8.5 | 4-0 (3-1) | — | +350 |
| 2. | Baltimore Ravens | 7.5 | 3-1 (2-2) | — | +600 |
| 3. | Green Bay Packers | 6 | 4-0 (4-0) | +2 | +1000 |
| 4. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5 | 3-1 (2-2) | +.5 | +1400 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 4.5 | 4-0 (4-0) | — | +800 |
| 6. | New Orleans Saints | 4.5 | 2-2 (2-2) | +.5 | +1400 |
| 7. | Buffalo Bills | 4.5 | 4-0 (3-1) | +.5 | +1500 |
| 8. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 4 | 3-0 (2-1) | — | +1800 |
| 9. | Indianapolis Colts | 3 | 3-1 (3-1) | +.5 | +2200 |
| 10. | Los Angeles Rams | 2.5 | 3-1 (2-2) | — | +2200 |
| 11. | Cleveland Browns | 2.5 | 3-1 (2-2) | +.5 | +3500 |
| 12. | San Francisco 49ers | 2 | 2-2 (2-2) | — | +2500 |
| 13. | Dallas Cowboys | 1.5 | 1-3 (0-4) | -1 | +2000 |
| 14. | Tennessee Titans | .5 | 3-0 (0-3) | -2.5 | +3000 |
| 15. | Arizona Cardinals | .5 | 2-2 (2-2) | -1 | +5000 |
| 16. | New England Patriots | 0 | 2-1 (2-1) | -3.5 | +2800 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 0 | 1-2-1 (1-3) | — | +5000 |
| 18. | Chicago Bears | 0 | 3-1 (2-2) | -.5 | +5000 |
| 19. | Las Vegas Raiders | 0 | 2-2 (2-2) | — | +8000 |
| 20. | Minnesota Vikings | -.5 | 1-3 (2-2) | +.5 | +6600 |
| 21. | Los Angeles Chargers | -.5 | 1-3 (3-1) | — | +10000 |
| 22. | Houston Texans | -1 | 0-4 (0-4) | -1 | +15000 |
| 23. | Detroit Lions | -1 | 1-3 (1-3) | -.5 | +15000 |
| 24. | Cincinnati Bengals | -1.5 | 1-2-1 (3-1) | +.5 | +20000 |
| 25. | Carolina Panthers | -1.5 | 2-2 (2-2) | +1.5 | +10000 |
| 26. | Atlanta Falcons | -1.5 | 0-4 (1-3) | -1 | +15000 |
| 27. | Miami Dolphins | -2 | 1-3 (2-2) | — | +20000 |
| 28. | Washington | -3.5 | 1-3 (1-3) | -.5 | +25000 |
| 29. | Denver Broncos | -3.5 | 1-3 (3-1) | — | +15000 |
| 30. | Jacksonville Jaguars | -4 | 1-3 (2-2) | -1 | +25000 |
| 31. | New York Giants | -4.5 | 0-4 (2-2) | +.5 | +40000 |
| 32. | New York Jets | -7 | 0-4 (0-4) | +.5 | +50000 |
Week 5 Risers
Teams who improved from the last Power Ratings update on Sept. 30.
Packers (4 to 6) — The Packers have been my biggest whiff of the season through four weeks, and I’m correcting that mistake by finally giving them a big boost in my ratings. The Packers head into their bye week off yet another dominant performance from Aaron Rodgers, who threw for four touchdowns while averaging 9.9 YPA against the Falcons.
Buccaneers (4.5 to 5) — This is a different era of Buccaneers football after Tampa overcame a three-score deficit to win 38-31 over the Chargers in Week 4. Bruce Arians put it best after the game, “I can honestly say had this been last year, we’d have gotten our ass beat by 20. This team has a ton of character and playmakers. We started making plays and you can see when we don’t beat ourselves, we’re going to be a tough team to beat.”
Saints (4 to 4.5) — The Saints had six starters miss last week’s game because of injuries and they had a false positive for COVID-19 the day before their game in Week 4. They still found a way to overcome a two-score deficit against the Lions, and they’ll now be getting Michael Thomas (ankle) and others back this week.
Bills (4 to 4.5) — Josh Allen had his worst performance of the season last week and he still threw for 288 yards and two touchdowns in a tough spot against the Raiders. The Bills now have a two-game lead in the division for the first time since 1995 after New England’s second loss of the season.
Colts (2.5 to 3.5) — The Colts dropped their season opener to the Jaguars to just get everyone off their scent. They’re allowing by far the fewest points per game (14.0) and the fewest yards per game (236.2) against an easy opening schedule. The Colts could be without key players in LB Darius Leonard (groin) and LT Anthony Castonzo (rib), which kept me from moving the Colts higher.
Browns (2 to 2.5) — The Browns have been rolling since the Ravens ran them off the field in the season opener, and they could have a fully engaged Odell Beckham after he totaled 154 yards and three touchdowns in Week 4. They also have a fully engaged Myles Garrett on the defensive side of the ball after he racked up another two sacks, including a sack-fumble, last week.
Vikings (-1 to -.5) — Dalvin Cook is rolling once again with 22+ carries and 130+ rushing yards in each of the last two weeks, which has given this team so much needed life. Rookie Justin Jefferson has also given this passing attack a vertical element in the last two weeks, but this defense is still a major work in progress.
Bengals (-2 to -1.5) — Joe Burrow picked up his first career victory in a 33-25 win over the Jaguars as a one-point home favorite. This spring’s first overall pick became the first rookie quarterback to throw for more than 300 yards in three straight games while Joe Mixon got off the schneid with a three-touchdown day
Panthers (-3 to -1.5) — Go figure, the Panthers have reeled off two outright victories as underdogs the last two weeks without Christian McCaffrey. Teddy Bridgewater is completing 73.0% of his passes and he’s averaging 8.1 YPA through four weeks and that’s without D.J. Moore making much noise in the first month.
Giants (-5 to 4.5) — New York lost 17-9 to the Rams last week but they ground out a cover as 13.5-point road underdogs. The Giants entered the game with the worst rushing offense in the NFL, but they mustered 25/136 rushing against the Rams.
Jets (-7 to -6.5) — This adjustment up is in no way an endorsement of the way the Jets played last week on Thursday Night Football I’m adjusting the Jets slightly up since they could get some key offensive pieces like RB Le’Veon Bell, WR Breshad Perriman, and WR Denzel Mims back this week. Sam Darnold needs all the help he can get right now.
Week 5 Fallers
Teams who worsened from the last Power Ratings update on Sept. 30.
Cowboys (2.5 to 1.5) — The Cowboys got torched for 49 points by the Browns in Week 4, and they’re now allowing a league-worst 36.5 points per game. Dallas needs to figure out a way to get a couple of stops per game because their offense sits third in points per game (31.5) and first in yards per game (509.5).
Titans (2.5 to .5) — It’s anybody’s guess as to how this Titans team will respond this week after they had nine players and 11 staff members test positive for COVID-19 during their recent outbreak, which forced them to take an early bye in Week 4.
Cardinals (1.5 to .5) — The Cardinals have come crashing back to earth after the first two weeks with consecutive losses to the Lions and Panthers as favorites. Kyler Murray averaged a pathetic 4.3 YPA in their 31-21 loss to Carolina as three-point road favorites.
Patriots (3.5 to 0) — Cam Newton tested positive for COVID-19 last weekend, and Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham cost them a chance at a victory in a winnable game against the Chiefs in Week 4. Hoyer/Stidham is a huge downgrade from Cam and the Patriots then lost the 2020 Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore on Wednesday morning.
Bears (.5 to 0) — The Bears mustered just 269 total yards against the Colts in Nick Foles’ first start with the Bears, with their only touchdown coming more than 58 minutes into their loss to Indy. Chicago’s 3-0 start could turn into a 3-2 start in a matter of five days with a matchup looming against the Bucs on Thursday Night Football.
Texans (0 to -1) — Bill O’Brien’s recent reign of terror as the GM/HC mercifully came to an end after the Texans dropped to 0-4 after their 31-23 loss to the Vikings as four-point home favorites. O’Brien had reportedly been clashing with prominent players recently. We’ll see if the switch to the lovable Romeo Crennel will galvanize a still talented group or if this team has already waved the white flag during an already strange 2020 season.
Falcons (-.5 to -1.5) — The Falcons are off to a miserable start having blown a couple of huge leads late in Weeks 2-3. To add injury to insult, Julio Jones aggravated his hamstring injury and they lost two more safeties to further decimate this already terrible secondary.
Lions (-.5 to -1) — The Lions have held double-digit leads in every game this season, and they’re 1-3 heading into their Week 4 bye. Matt Patricia’s time is running short in Detroit with his 10-25-1 record through two-plus seasons. He inherited a team that went 36-28 the previous four seasons under Jim Caldwell in 2014-17.
Football Team (-3 to -3.5) — The Football Team has lost three straight games by two touchdowns after surprising the Eagles in the season opener. Dwayne Haskins needed major garbage-time production last week to average 7.0 YPA or better and to complete 60% of his passes or better for the first time this season.
Jaguars (-3 to -4) — The Jaguars are back to “Tanking for Trevor” after losing a pair of games to the Bengals and the Dolphins in the last two weeks. To make matters worse (or better for tanking) they lost three defensive starters to injuries with Myles Jack (ankle), C.J. Henderson (shoulder), and D.J. Hayden (hamstring) each going down.
