My power ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season.
I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks for the week, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant. I’m currently baking in a one and a half to two-point advantage for home teams right now. I hope you find these ratings useful and good luck with your wagers!
|Rank||Team||Power Rating||Record (ATS)||Ratings Change||Super Bowl LV Odds|
|1.||Baltimore Ravens||8||2-0 (2-0)||+.5||+500|
|2.||Kansas City Chiefs||7.5||2-0 (1-1)||—||+500|
|3.||New Orleans Saints||5||1-1 (1-1)||-1||+1000|
|4.||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||4.5||1-1 (1-1)||—||+1800|
|5.||Seattle Seahawks||4||2-0 (2-0)||—||+1200|
|6.||Pittsburgh Steelers||3.5||2-0 (1-1)||+.5||+1800|
|7.||Buffalo Bills||3.5||2-0 (1-1)||+.5||+2000|
|8.||Dallas Cowboys||3||1-1 (1-1)||—||+1800|
|9.||Green Bay Packers||3||2-0 (2-0)||+.5||+1600|
|10.||Tennessee Titans||2.5||2-0 (0-2)||—||+2500|
|11.||New England Patriots||2.5||1-1 (1-1)||+.5||+2200|
|12.||Los Angeles Rams||2||2-0 (2-0)||+.5||+2200|
|13.||Indianapolis Colts||2||1-1 (1-1)||+.5||+2800|
|14.||Arizona Cardinals||1.5||2-0 (2-0)||+.5||+2500|
|15.||Cleveland Browns||1.5||1-1 (1-1)||+.5||+5000|
|16.||San Francisco 49ers||1.5||1-1 (1-1)||-4||+2000|
|17.||Philadelphia Eagles||1||0-2 (0-2)||-1||+4000|
|18.||Houston Texans||.5||0-2 (0-2)||—||+8000|
|19.||Chicago Bears||.5||2-0 (1-1)||—||+3300|
|20.||Las Vegas Raiders||0||2-0 (2-0)||+.5||+4000|
|21.||Los Angeles Chargers||0||1-1 (2-0)||+1||+5000|
|22.||Atlanta Falcons||0||0-2 (1-1)||—||+8000|
|23.||Minnesota Vikings||-1||0-2 (0-2)||-2.5||+5000|
|24.||Detroit Lions||-1.5||0-2 (0-2)||-.5||+10000|
|25.||Cincinnati Bengals||-2||0-2 (1-1)||—||+20000|
|26.||Denver Broncos||-2.5||0-2 (2-0)||-1.5||+6600|
|27.||Jacksonville Jaguars||-2.5||1-1 (2-0)||+1||+10000|
|28.||Miami Dolphins||-2.5||0-2 (1-1)||-5||+20000|
|30.||New York Giants||-3||0-2 (1-1)||-1||+15000|
|31.||Carolina Panthers||-3.5||0-2 (0-2)||-1||+20000|
|32.||New York Jets||-5.5||0-2 (0-2)||-3||+20000|
Week 3 Risers
Teams who improved from the last Power Ratings update on Sept. 16.
Baltimore Ravens (7.5 to 8) — Don’t look now but the Ravens defense is just as dangerous as their prolific offense. They’ve vaulted ahead of the Chiefs for the time being and we’ll see who will hold the top spot after they play each other in the game of the season on Monday Night Football this week.
Pittsburgh Steelers (3 to 3.5), Buffalo Bills (3 to 3.5), and Green Bay Packers (2.5 to 3)
I grouped these three teams since they’ve been impressive in the early going, but it’s difficult to tell just how good they are since they each beat inferior opponents. The Steelers defense hasn’t played quite up to last year’s standards but there is still plenty of time for the group to improve, but they may have two star WRs in the making in Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool.
Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes (2019), Peyton Manning (2013), and Tom Brady (2013) are the only QBs to post 700+ passing yards and 6+ TDs without an INT in the first two games of the season. Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers inflicted the damage in Week 1 before Aaron Jones totaled 200+ scrimmage yards and three TDs against the Lions last week.
New England Patriots (2 to 2.5) — The Patriots got the rare bump up in my Power Ratings after a straight up loss and an ATS loss to the Seahawks. Granted, the Patriots failed to cover on a last-second play at the goal line, but they’re on the move up because Cam Newton proved he can still sling it after showing he could still run it in Week 1.
Los Angeles Rams (1.5 to 2) — The Rams knocked off the top contenders in the NFC East to start the season, and they’ll now look to vanquish the top team in the AFC East this week. I had the Rams higher than most entering the year and now I’m starting to wonder if I wasn’t high enough.
Indianapolis Colts (1.5 to 2) — The Colts won by 17 points and that actually doesn’t tell how badly they whipped the Vikings last week. Kirk Cousins had a 0.0 passer rating deep into the game and the Colts settled for four field goals or the outcome could’ve been much uglier.
Arizona Cardinals (1 to 1.5) — Kyler Murray has been the league’s most dynamic running QB through two weeks with 158/3 rushing, and it doesn’t hurt that he’s already struck up a strong connection with DeAndre Hopkins, who has 22/219/1 receiving through two weeks.
Cleveland Browns (1 to 1.5) — The Browns had a dreadful showing against the Ravens in the season opener, but they got things corrected on a short week. The Browns didn’t cover in Week 2 against the Bengals, but they dominated the game by holding a massive 3.5-yards-per-play advantage (7.5 to 4.0).
Los Angeles Chargers (-1 to 0) — The Chargers defense looks legit after holding the Chiefs to 23 points in an overtime loss, and Justin Herbert showed that the Chargers have a higher ceiling with the rookie in the lineup. Unfortunately, Anthony Lynn is determined to hold this team back by reinserting Tyrod Taylor back into the lineup after giving away the Week 2 game by not going for a fourth-and-1 conversion in overtime to set up KC’s victory.
Las Vegas Raiders (-.5 to 0) — The Raiders knocked off an undermanned Saints offense in their first game in Las Vegas. HC Jon Gruden rode his top two weapons Darren Waller (12/103 receiving) and Josh Jacobs (105 scrimmage yards) to pull off the outright victory as four-point home underdogs.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5 to 2.5) — Gardner Minshew isn’t going to let the Jaguars be bottom-feeders early in the season with six touchdowns through the first two games. He pulled off a huge upset of the Colts in the season opener before nearly taking down the Titans in Week 2.
Week 3 Fallers
Teams who worsened from the last Power Ratings update on Sept. 16.
New Orleans Saints (6 to 5) — Drew Brees is averaging just 4.82 air yards on his passes so far, which is the lowest average through two games since Brett Favre in 2009. It doesn’t help that Michael Thomas is likely to miss at least another game with his high-ankle injury.
San Francisco 49ers (5.5 to 1.5) — The 49ers are the latest team to deal with the Super Bowl curse after an absolutely miserable start to the season. In Week 2 alone they lost Nick Bosa (ACL, IR), Solomon Thomas (ACL, IR), Jimmy Garoppolo (high-ankle), Raheem Mostert (knee), and Tevin Coleman (knee), which is why they’ve plummeted down my rankings.
Philadelphia Eagles (2 to 1) — Carson Wentz simply isn’t playing well enough in the early going with his 58.8 completion percentage and his four INTs through two games. The defense also hasn’t done its part by allowing 32.0 points per game after the Rams posted 37 points on them.
Minnesota Vikings (1.5 to -1) — I didn’t want to overreact and knock the Vikings too much after their season-opening performance against the Packers, but I had to lower the boom on Minnesota this week. The Vikings got crushed by 17 points last week against the Colts, and it should’ve been much worse as the Colts mercifully settled for four field goals.
Detroit Lions (-1 to -1.5) — Jets HC Adam Gase should be the first coach fired this season, but Matt Patricia is giving him a run for his money. The Lions are riding an 11-game losing streak dating back to last season, and they’ve now blown seven different double-digit leads in that same span after the Packers overcame a 14-3 deficit last week.
Miami Dolphins (-2 to -2.5) — The Dolphins spent a lot of money and a lot of draft capital to improve their defense from last season but the results aren’t there through the first two games of the season after Josh Allen torched them for 400+ yards and four TDs. Miami will now be without top CB Bryon Jones this week after he suffered a groin injury last week.
Denver Broncos (-1 to -2.5) — The 49ers have been the most snakebitten in the early going, but the Broncos are a close second having lost both Von Miller (ankle) and Courtland Sutton (ACL) for the season. They’ll also navigate the next couple of weeks with Jeff Driskel at QB after Drew Lock suffered a shoulder injury.
New York Giants (-2 to -3) — The Giants took a big blow with Saquon Barkley going down for the season with a torn ACL. New York signed Devonta Freeman on Sept. 22 to try to replace their superstar back, but it’s going to take a major step forward from second-year QB Daniel Jones to offset the loss.
Carolina Panthers (-2.5 to -3.5) — Christian McCaffrey is hurt and the NFL is worse for it. The Panthers are also worse for it as Mike Davis will look to make sure Carolina can survive without their star RB for the next 4-6 weeks.
New York Jets (-2.5 to -5.5) — I had my suspicions that the Jets may be the worst team in the league — I bet them at +1400 to finish with the worst record — but I didn’t think they’d totally mail it in to start the season. Adam Gase may not have a job for much longer if they turn in another dismal performance or two over the next couple of weeks.