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Each Monday morning during the season, I’ll preview three games with spreads that I think will move by the end of the week. This article is designed to help you get the best odds possible by helping you to decide if you should place a bet early in the week or if you should wait to wager until closer to kickoff based on potential line movements. I’ll include any early week leans and wagers that I make in my write-ups.
Week 10 Opening Lines
TNF
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Sunday
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8)
Washington Football Team at Detroit Lions (-4)
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers (-14)
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at New York Giants
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (-4.5)
Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-1)
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-7)
Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)
SNF
Baltimore Ravens (-7) at New England Patriots
MNF
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Chicago Bears
Byes
Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, New York Jets
Los Angeles Chargers (2-6, 5-3 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (5-3, 6-2)
Opening Line: Dolphins -2.5
Recent Results: The Chargers dropped to 3-15 in one-score games since the start of last season following yet another excruciating loss, this time to the Raiders in Week 9. Los Angeles had a Donald Parham’s go-ahead touchdown taken off the board with no time remaining as the Chargers fell 31-26 to the Raiders as one-point home favorites. The Dolphins extended their outright and ATS win streaks to four consecutive victories with their 34-31 decision over the Cardinals as six-point road underdogs. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 248 yards without a turnover while the Dolphins scored a defensive touchdown for the second straight game.
Injuries/Developments to Follow: The Chargers lost Justin Jackson in the early stages of Week 9 with a knee, which left the backfield to the likes of Kalen Ballage and Joshua Kelley. RT Bryan Bulaga also aggravated his back injury and he’ll be in a race to be ready this weekend. The Dolphins lost WR Preston Williams to a foot injury in Week 9, which is going to test their already thin WR depth after they surprisingly traded away Isaiah Ford to the division-rival Patriots before their Week 9 game.
Potential Line Movement: I just don’t see this line holding under a field goal after what we’ve seen the Dolphins do to their opponents over the last four weeks, two of which came with Tua at quarterback. Brain Flores is building a strong case to take home the Coach of the Year honors. I also don’t see people lining up to bet the Chargers this week after yet another soul-crushing loss and failed ATS cover. Anthony Lynn is building a strong case to take home the Worst Coach of the Year honors (if it existed). I believe this line will finish in the 3-to-4 point range later this week so I wagered on the Dolphins -2.5 on Monday morning. These two teams are heading in two different directions heading into the second half of the season. I’d much rather back the team with playoff aspirations laying a short number than back a team that’s coming off two demoralizing losses with almost no hope for the playoffs that’s getting just a short number.
Houston Texans (2-6, 1-7 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (5-3, 3-5)
- Opening Line: Browns -2.5
- Recent Results: The Texans grabbed their second win of the season over the Jaguars in Week 9, but they failed to cover their second spread of the season in a 27-25 victory as 6.5-point road favorites. The Browns had a much-needed week off to heal up after they lost 16-6 to the Raiders in sloppy conditions in Week 8 as one-point home favorites.
- Injuries/Developments to Follow: The Texans have some injuries to watch this week after RB David Johnson (concussion), LG Senio Kelemete (concussion), LB Brennan Scarlett (forearm), and DE Charles Omenihu (leg). CB Bradley Roby’s situation is another to follow after the Texans suspended him in Week 9 for disciplinary reasons. The Browns should be much healthier coming out of their bye with RB Nick Chubb, RG Wyatt Teller, and TE Austin Hooper each likely to return to the lineup. The Browns did place Baker Mayfield on the COVID-19 list as a high-risk contact, but he could be cleared for practice later this week if he has negative tests early in the week.
- Potential Line Movement: Early forecasts for this game project some potentially windy, rainy weather in Cleveland this weekend, which I think will benefit a much better Browns rushing attack against a porous Texans run defense. Houston could also be down to just passing-back Duke Johnson as their primary runner with David Johnson up in the air for this weekend. I believe this line will close in the 3.5 to 4.5 point range later this week so I bet the Browns at -2.5 while I still could. Cleveland has fallen flat in its step-up games this season against the likes of the Ravens, the Steelers, and the Raiders, but this isn’t one of those spots this week. They’ve won all four of their games against opponents with losing records this season (and against the Colts) and I think they’ll get it done again this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3, 4-5 ATS) at Carolina Panthers (3-6, 5-4)
- Opening Line: Buccaneers -6.5
- Recent Results: The Saints wiped the floor with the Buccaneers 38-3 as three-point road underdogs during the same week that the circus came to town when Antonio Brown joined the team. Tampa Bay attempted just five carries in their loss, which set a new NFL-low for fewest rushing attempts in a game. The Panthers nearly knocked off the Chiefs in Kansas City as 10-point underdogs, but Joey Slye’s desperation field goal with no time remaining from 67 yards away missed badly to the right in a 33-31 loss.
- Injuries/Developments to Follow: We’ll have to see about Christian McCaffrey’s availability this week after he left on the final drive of Week 9 with a shoulder injury. Early indications are that he’ll miss this week, meaning that the Panthers will turn back to Mike Davis to lead this backfield again. The Buccaneers appeared to escape Week 9 without any injuries outside of their severely wounded egos. Chris Godwin didn’t appear to have any setbacks after playing his first game after having surgery on his finger.
- Potential Line Movement: The Buccaneers are still getting a lot of respect after consecutive bad performances against the Giants and the Buccaneers while the Panthers aren’t seemingly getting enough love for their performance against the Chiefs last week. I’d obviously much rather have CMC in the lineup this week, but I still see value in the Panthers at this price so I bet Carolina at +6.5. I think this line will dip south of the key number of six later this week so I’ll take the extra value now for a side I’m looking to back later in the week.
Brolley’s Early Week 10 Bets
Carolina Panthers +6.5
Miami Dolphins -2.5
Cleveland Browns -2.5
Los Angeles Rams -1
