Rookie season prop bets have been trickling out at various sportsbooks since the end of the NFL Draft. I figured it was time to dive into them to see if there’s any value on these initial lines. Wagering your hard-earned money in May and waiting for bets to be settled in seven to eight months — if we’re fortunate this season — isn’t the easiest pill to swallow. Nevertheless, if we’re able to get the best of the odds before the markets fully mature in the near future it will make the wait until the conclusion of the season worth it in the long run.
If you can, make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds. You’re likely to see more volatility between books in the off-season than you’ll see on game lines during the season. Let’s see if we can find some value in these rookie season props.
Rookie Season Props
Note: I’m leaning toward unders on most of the rookie season props this season. Rookies face a steep learning curve transitioning to the league in a normal off-season, but the curve could be even steeper this summer because of the current pandemic. It could take most rookies even more time to learn the ropes with off-season practices going virtual and with training camp and preseason action potentially getting condensed. In general, under bets will be more in play even if it takes just one or two extra weeks for certain rookies to get on the field to make an impact.
Quarterback
Joe Burrow (Cin)
Passing yards: 3700.5, bovada.lv (231.3 yards per game)
Passing TDs: 21.5, DraftKings/bovada.lv (1.34 TDs per game)
Fantasy Points Projections: 4005 passing yards, 26 passing TDs
The Bengals left no doubt who would be their starting QB in Week One when they released Andy Dalton a week after the draft concluded. Burrow is coming off the best single-season QB performance in FBS history, and he has the weapons in Cincy to keep the momentum going in Year One. Dalton fell 207 passing yards short of topping Burrow’s mark for this season, but he played in just 13 games. He also threw for 3494 yards without A.J. Green for the entire season and John Ross for half the season. The Bengals defense still projects to be one of the league’s worst, and they have a win total sitting at 5.5 wins heading into the season. Burrow should get some opportunities for inflated passing yardage totals late in games this season.
The last four QBs picked No.1 overall who were starters from Day One (Kyler Murray, Jameis Winston, Andrew Luck, and Cam Newton) each surpassed 3700.5 passing yards during their rookie seasons. The 21.5 passing touchdowns set for Burrow could be a little tougher. The runners Kyler (20 passing TDs) and Cam (21) each fell below that mark while the more traditional QBs in Winston (22) and Luck (23) each squeaked over it. I’d stay away from Burrow’s passing TD total, but I feel confident he can clear 3700.5 passing yards if he plays in 15+ games.
Justin Herbert (LAC) and Tua Tagovailoa (Mia)
Herbert’s passing yards: 3400, betonline.ag (212.5 yards per game)
Herbert’s passing TDs: 21, betonline.ag (1.31 TDs per game)
Herbert’s Fantasy Points Projections: 2995 passing yards, 15 passing TDs
Tua’s passing yards: 3200, betonline.ag (200.0 yards per game)
Tua’s passing TDs: 19, betonline.ag (1.19 TDs per game)
Tua’s Fantasy Points Projections: 2675 passing yards, 13 TDs
I like Burrow’s chances of going over his passing yards total because he has a solid chance of starting all 16 games this season. I can’t say the same about the two quarterbacks selected after him in this year’s draft. Right after the draft, bovada.lv opened Herbert at +235 to be the Game One starter while Tua opened at +175 to be the Game One starter. Those odds imply a 30% and a 36% chance of them starting in Week One, respectively.
Herbert landed in the best offense of the top rookie QBs heading into the 2020 season, but HC Anthony Lynn appears ready to roll with his old Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor to start the season. The Chargers have also built their squad like those old Bills teams with an emphasis on their rushing attack and their potentially top-tier defense, and Lynn will be content to ease Herbert into the lineup. With Tua and his surgically repaired hip, I think the Dolphins will be cautious and ease him into the lineup after the first couple weeks of the season. Miami is also breaking in a completely rebuilt offensive line. It makes sense for them to let Ryan Fitzpatrick take a beating early as they become a cohesive unit.
I believe both Herbert and Tua will start in the neighborhood of 12-14 games each this season, which makes me want to bet both their passing yards and passing TDs under the totals. I especially like betting Herbert’s unders since his totals are higher, and I also see the Chargers being near the bottom of the league in pace and in pass attempts per game. The Chargers finished dead last in seconds between plays in situation-neutral scenarios (33.14) last season with Philip Rivers, and the Bills attempted the fewest passes per game in 2016 (29.6) with Tyrod at QB and Lynn serving as OC/interim HC.
Jalen Hurts (Phi)
- To start a regular season game: Yes -115, No -125
This is really bet on if Carson Wentz will be healthy enough to start 16 games. Wentz has earned a bad rap as a player that’s always hurt, but he’s started 16 regular season games in two of his first four seasons. With that said, I’d still lean toward betting Hurts to start a game because there’s more potential for it to happen. I see three scenarios in which Hurts could start a game. The obvious one is that Wentz is hurt and can’t make a start. The second scenario is the Eagles open a game with a bizarre package that has Hurts on the field — the bet says nothing about which position Hurts starts at. Finally, the Eagles could play a meaningless game in Week 17, and they could rest their franchise quarterback for their rookie QB. I don’t feel strongly about wagering on this prop, but I think there are more outs betting the “Yes” that Hurts starts a game this season.
Running Backs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC)
Rushing yards: 950, betonline.ag (59.4 yards per game)
Fantasy Points Projection: 915 rushing yards
The Chiefs didn’t spend a first-round pick on Edwards-Helaire to play in a 50/50 committee with Damien Williams, whom they’ve been reluctant to go all-in on over the last season and a half. I’m expecting CEH to handle at least 60% of the workload in this backfield, but I’m also expecting him to make his biggest impact in this potent Chiefs passing attack. Since Jamaal Charles faded away in 2014, Kareem Hunt has been the only Chiefs back to reach 950+ rushing yards in a season back in 2017. Hunt was also well on his way to doing it again in 2018 before a video of him assaulting a woman surfaced in November of that season.
Hunt didn’t have much competition for carries in either of those seasons with all-time great Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware “pushing” him for carries. Williams has shown he’s a capable player when he’s been given a chance so I’m not expecting him to completely disappear from this offense. I believe Williams will see just enough carries every week to have me favoring the under on this wager. Still, I want no part of taking an under on a season prop when it comes to the core players of this potent Chiefs offense.
D’Andre Swift (Det)
- Rushing yards: 625, betonline.ag (39.1 yards per game)
- Fantasy Points Projection: 800 rushing yards
Swift was the odds-on favorite to be the first back selected during the NFL Draft. He ended up being the second back off the board behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and he also landed in a less than desirable spot with the Lions. Swift has three-down potential, but he may have landed in the wrong place to be that type of player right away since HC Matt Patricia and GM Bob Quinn seem to prefer a committee. Kerryon Johnson figures to be the primary runner with Swift handling passing downs and mixing in at times as a runner early in the season. The hope is that Swift shows he’s the better player and he muscles his way to more carries as his rookie season goes along.
Swift averaged more than 6.2 YPC during each of his three seasons at Georgia, and he may need about only 150 carries to get up over his target of 625 rushing yards — he would need to average 4.2 YPC on 150 carries to surpass the mark. Johnson has played in just 18-of-32 possible games to start his career because of knee injuries so it wouldn’t be shocking if Swift gets a few extra carries at some point because of Johnson’s durability issues. I’d lean toward Swift going over his rushing total, but I don’t feel strongly about it since his biggest impact is likely to come as a receiver.
Jonathan Taylor (Ind)
Rushing yards: 750, betonline.ag (46.9 yards per game)
Fantasy Points Projection: 1065 rushing yards
Taylor ran for 1900+ yards in each of his three seasons at Wisconsin so racking up 750+ rushing yards should be a breeze. He’d likely do it pretty easily if he was the clear cut lead runner because the Colts should have one of the best offensive lines once again this season. The problem is the Colts could be reluctant to give him the majority of work right away with early-down grinder Marlon Mack still in town. The former USF RB has easily cleared 750 rushing yards in each of the last two seasons — he ran for 1091 yards in 2019 and 908 in 2018 — but he also did it with very little competition for early-down work behind him.
I’m expecting Taylor to be leading this backfield by the end of the season, but the big question is how quickly he can force Mack into the clear second-fiddle position. Mack clearly left something to be desired at the position or else the organization wouldn’t have traded up to draft Taylor. They’re also making a hard push for the 2020 Super Bowl with Philip Rivers in the fold, but that could cut both ways. If Taylor is clearly the better player, he’s going to get the majority of carries but, if he plays like a rookie, the Colts can always fall back on Mack to shoulder the load. I always bet on the better player in the end. I’d look toward the over on Taylor’s rushing total in hopes that he can quickly blow past Mack on the depth chart.
RECAP: BETS TO CONSIDER
Joe Burrow (Cin) over 3700.5 passing yards (bovada.lv)
Justin Herbert (LAC) under 3400 passing yards (betonline.ag) *Best Bet*
Justin Herbert (LAC) under 21 passing TDs (betonline.ag) *Best Bet*
Tua Tagovailoa (Mia) under 3200 passing yards (betonline.ag)
Tua Tagovailoa (Mia) under 19 passing TDs (betonline.ag)
Jonathan Taylor (Ind) over 750.5 rushing yards (betonline.ag)
