CFB DraftKings Cash & Single Entry: December 28

I’m pumped for this run of bowl game slates we have to end the year!

This Tuesday slate features a few potential shootouts in NC State-UCLA and Texas Tech-Mississippi State. Will Rogers and Devin Leary were absolutely impressive this season, but can they continue their strong play into bowl season and end on a high note? Is Donovan Smith a viable QB option at $5.4K? Should we stack both Makai Polk and Jaden Walley with Will Rogers? Is West Virginia RB Tony Mathis Jr. a must-start at $3.5K? Can Zach Charbonnet continue his hot streak to end the season with Brittain Brown returning?

Let’s dig in!

Against the Spread Picks

Mississippi State (-9.5) vs Texas Tech

North Carolina State (-2.0) vs UCLA

Minnesota (-5.0) vs West Virginia

Total Wagers

Mississippi State vs Texas Tech (Under 58.5)

North Carolina State vs UCLA (Over 60.0)

Minnesota vs West Virginia (Over 45.0)

Quarterbacks

Will Rogers, Mississippi State vs Texas Tech (DK: $8.8K | FD: NA | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 34.25)

Will Rogers had an incredible sophomore campaign throwing for 4,449 yards and 35 TDs for 28.3 FPG. Rogers averaged 52.5 pass attempts per game and had 75.1 completion percentage. The Texas Tech DEF is ranked 105th in QB FPG (26.5) and 118th in PASS YPG (265.8). The Raider’s DEF allowed 296-plus yards through the air in six games this year. This matchup is pretty straightforward, making Rogers the best QB play on the slate.

Devin Leary, North Carolina State vs UCLA (DK: $7.8K | FD: NA | O/U: 59.5 | Implied: 30.75)

Devin Leary has been sneaky good this year. A good bowl versus UCLA good really put him on the map with NFL teams for the 2022 NFL Draft. Leary had 3,433 yards and 35 TDs through the air for 24.7 FPG. In four of the last five games, he threw for at least 300-plus yards and 4 TDs, averaging 28.5 FPG over that span. The UCLA DEF is ranked 62nd in QB FPG (21.4) and 111th in PASS YPG (260.2). Leary is poised to impress scouts and have a big game versus UCLA.

Donovan Smith, Texas Tech vs Mississippi State (DK: $5.4K | FD: NA | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 24.25)

Donovan Smith started the last four games, averaging 15.4 FPG including a forgettable 0/82 FPs performance versus a top-10 Oklahoma State DEF. If you take out that game, Smith averaged 20.28 FPG. He is a big dual-threat QB who has thrown 192-plus yards in three of four starts. The Mississippi State DEF is ranked 39th in QB FPG (19.5) and 68th in PASS YPG (230.1). Texas Tech will be playing from behind all game so Smith will be forced to throw the ball a ton to try to keep up with the Mississippi State passing attack. I really like Smith’s chances to hit value at only $5.4K.

Alternatives:

Malik Cunningham, Louisville vs Air Force (DK: $8.6K | FD: NA | O/U: 55.0 | Implied: 38.25)

Running Backs

Zach Charbonnet, UCLA vs North Carolina State (DK: $7.4K | FD: NA | O/U: 59.5 | Implied: 30.75)

Zach Charbonnet proved it was the right move for him to enter the transfer portal last offseason after a breakout season at UCLA where he ran for 1,137 yards and 13 TDs, averaging 21.5 FPG. He saved his best stretch of football for the last three games of the year, averaging 22.3 carries for 113 yards for 28.4 FPG. The NC State DEF is tough against the run, only allowing 124.1 YPG. Brittain Brown will be returning from injury for the bowl game as well. Still, Charbonnet has been highly productive all season sharing the backfield with Brown no matter the opponent. If you want to build your lineup around the RB position, it starts with Charbonnet.

Tony Mathis Jr., West Virginia vs Minnesota (DK: $3.5K | FD: NA | O/U: 45.0 | Implied: 20.0)

Tony Mathis Jr. has been the backup RB to Leddie Brown all year. He will have his shot to be the guy versus Minnesota in the bowl game as Brown opted out of the bowl in preparation for the NFL draft. For the season, Mathis had 50 carries for 256 yards, averaging 4.3 YPC. In the last game of the season versus Kansas, he ran the ball 22 times for 118 yards accumulating 17.3 FPs. His backup RB will be true freshman Justin Johnson, who is talented, but has only played in 3 games and is averaging less than 3 YPC. He is the cheapest starting RB on this slate who has the potential for high volume. I’m locking him in my lineups.

Dillon Johnson, Mississippi State vs Texas Tech (DK: $5.3K | FD: NA | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 34.25)

Dillon Johnson is technically the backup RB for Mississippi State, but essentially splits reps with starter, Jo’quavious Marks, and his $1K cheaper on DK. It’s totally plausible to start either RB with confidence in this matchup, but I chose Johnson to save salary. He has scored 15-plus FPs in four of his last five games, averaging 17.22 FPG over that span. What makes him, and Marks, so valuable is the receiving work they get out of the backfield. Johnson has 62 catches on the year, averaging 5 receptions per game, which is great in a full-PPR format like DK. He is absolutely one of the better value plays on the slate.

Alternatives:

Jo’quavious Marks, Mississippi State vs Texas Tech (DK: $6.2K | FD: NA | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 34.25)

Receivers

Makai Polk, Mississippi State vs Texas Tech (DK: $7.9K | FD: NA | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 34.25)

Jaden Walley, Mississippi State vs Texas Tech (DK: $4.9K | FD: NA | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 34.25)

Makai Polk has been one of the best transfer portal WRs from 2021, giving Will Rogers the reliable target he desperately needed on the outside. In 12 games, Polk had 98 receptions for 989 yards and 9 TDs, averaging exactly 22 FPG. His consistency is what sticks out to me as Polk produced 21.8-plus FPs in 8 of 12 games this year. The Texas Tech DEF is ranked 90th in WR FPG (26.0) and 118th in PASS YPG (265.8). It’s hard to envision a scenario where Polk doesn’t hit value on this slate.

Jaden Walley is the WR many of us thought would be Will Rogers’ favorite target after his excellent 2021 season where the two showed great connection and chemistry. However, Polk’s presence in the offense led to Walley taking a backseat this year. He was still productive with 52 receptions for 610 yards and 6 TDs, averaging 12.2 FPG from the slot. Walley was remarkably consistent this year scoring between 11.7 and 16.8 FPs in 9 of 12 games. In 6 games, he scored 15-plus FPs, which would have him hitting value in this slate.

Due to the passing volume for Mississippi State and advantageous matchup, I think you can totally justify stacking both Walley and Polk with Rogers in this matchup.

Emeka Emezie, North Carolina State vs UCLA (DK: $6.3K | FD: NA | O/U: 59.5 | Implied: 30.75)

Emeka Emezie has been Devin Leary’s favorite target all year as he caught 60 balls for 802 yards and 6 TDs for 15.6 FPG. As Leary has gotten hot over the last few weeks, Leary has turned in some monster games. Versus UNC, Emezie had 5 receptions for 112 yards and 2 TDs for 31.2 FPs. Two weeks earlier versus Wake Forest, he had 10 receptions for 133 yards and 2 TDs for 40.3 FPs. Emezie is the player you want to stack with Leary if you can fit him in your lineup as he will look to impress NFL scouts in his last game for the Wolfpack.

Winston Wright Jr., West Virginia vs Minnesota (DK: $5.5K | FD: NA | O/U: 45.0 | Implied: 20.0)

Winston Wright had a strong close to the 2021 season with 24 receptions for 249 yards and 5 TDs, averaging 16.4 FPG. If he were to hit 16.4 FPs versus Minnesota, then he would hit value at his price point on this slate. With Leddie Brown out, I could see West Virginia trying to throw the ball more. If that was the case, then Wright would be the biggest beneficiary in the passing game. If you wanted to diversify a bit more, you could choose someone like UCLA TE Greg Dulcich who has been impressive over the last five weeks as well.

Alternative:

Kyle Phillips, UCLA vs North Carolina State (DK: $6.8K | FD: NA | O/U: 59.5 | Implied: 30.75)

Greg Dulcich, UCLA vs North Carolina State (DK: $5.1K | FD: NA | O/U: 59.5 | Implied: 30.75)

$4.5K-or-less options:

Marshon Ford, Louisville vs Air Force (DK: $4.5K | FD: NA | O/U: 55.0 | Implied: 38.25)

Kaylon Geiger Sr., Texas Tech vs Mississippi State (DK: $3.9K | FD: NA | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 24.25)